Previsões do USD/BRL por modelos de IA
Um experimento: todo dia às 14h (BRT), os 50 modelos mais populares do OpenRouter preveem a PTAX do BCB. Somente números.
Execução de 03/11/2026 · 46 responderam, 4 falharam, 0 recusaram · custo US$ 0,69
Consenso
Consenso (mediana dos p50, um voto por modelo). PTAX na data da previsão: 5,4935 (03/11/2026).
30 dias
5,4500
6 meses
5,4000
1 ano
5,4500
5 anos
5,9000
Previsão de consenso
1 ano: 03/11/2027PTAX 5,4935 03/11/2026Consenso p50 5,4500 (4,8757–6,1750) 03/11/2027Passeio aleatório 5,4935 03/11/2027Focus 5,3700 03/11/2027A termo (aprox.) 6,0155 03/11/2027
Carregando gráfico…
Histórico da PTAX e, a partir da data da execução, o p50 de consenso (linha) e a mediana dos p10 e p90 (faixa) até cada data-alvo. Referências: passeio aleatório (plano), Focus (marcadores), a termo (aproximação).
Comparação entre modelos
Uma linha por modelo, em ordem de p50. Ponto: p50. Linha: p10 a p90.
modelo de chat modelo de decisão (Jev, Perplexity Decider) referência
p50 de consenso 5,4500 PTAX de 03/11/2026: 5,4935
- solar-mini4 5,3300
- glm-5.2 5,3400
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5,3428
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5,3450
- qwen3.7-flash 5,3478
- pplx-decider-v1.2 5,3711
- gpt-5.6-luna 5,3800
- jev-1.13 5,3968
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5,4000
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5,4000
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5,4000
- solar-pro4 5,4035
- jev-1.14 5,4061
- claude-haiku-5.5 5,4200
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5,4200
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5,4200
- deepseek-v4-pro 5,4300
- step-5-preview 5,4300
- claude-sonnet-5 5,4500
- gemini-3.7-flash 5,4500
- gemma-4-31b-it 5,4500
- glm-5.3 5,4500
- inkling 5,4500
- mimo-v2.6-flash 5,4500
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5,4500
- gpt-6.1-sol 5,4520
- gemini-3.8-flash 5,4600
- qwen3.8-27b 5,4600
- qwen3.8-flash 5,4600
- gpt-6-luna 5,4700
- gpt-6.1-terra 5,4700
- gpt-6-astra 5,4800
- gpt-6-luna-pro 5,4800
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5,4850
- claude-fable-5.1 5,4900
- claude-opus-5.5 5,4900
- claude-sonnet-5.5 5,4900
- minimax-m3 5,4900
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5,5000
- glm-5.3-flash 5,5000
- hy3 5,5000
- kimi-k3 5,5000
- gemini-4-argon 5,5100
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 5,5185
- gpt-oss-120b 5,5250
- deepseek-v4-flash 5,5500
- Passeio aleatório 5,4935
- Focus 5,3428
- A termo (aprox.) 5,5346
Sem resposta (4): tencent/hy4-preview (tempo esgotado), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (erro), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (erro), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (inválida).
p50 de consenso 5,4000 PTAX de 03/11/2026: 5,4935
- pplx-decider-v1.2 5,3018
- jev-1.13 5,3174
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5,3300
- gemma-4-31b-it 5,3300
- glm-5.2 5,3300
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5,3300
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5,3300
- jev-1.14 5,3361
- qwen3.7-flash 5,3378
- gpt-5.6-luna 5,3400
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5,3600
- gemini-3.7-flash 5,3800
- inkling 5,3800
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5,3800
- gemini-3.8-flash 5,3900
- solar-pro4 5,3995
- claude-haiku-5.5 5,4000
- claude-sonnet-5 5,4000
- deepseek-v4-pro 5,4000
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5,4000
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5,4000
- glm-5.3 5,4000
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5,4000
- qwen3.8-27b 5,4000
- solar-mini4 5,4000
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5,4200
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5,4200
- minimax-m3 5,4200
- step-5-preview 5,4200
- gpt-6.1-sol 5,4380
- glm-5.3-flash 5,4500
- kimi-k3 5,4500
- gpt-6-astra 5,4700
- gpt-6.1-terra 5,4700
- claude-opus-5.5 5,4800
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 5,4850
- claude-sonnet-5.5 5,5000
- gpt-6-luna 5,5000
- mimo-v2.6-flash 5,5000
- qwen3.8-flash 5,5100
- gpt-6-luna-pro 5,5200
- claude-fable-5.1 5,5300
- hy3 5,5500
- gemini-4-argon 5,5600
- deepseek-v4-flash 5,6500
- gpt-oss-120b 5,6500
- Passeio aleatório 5,4935
- Focus 5,3300
- A termo (aprox.) 5,7464
Sem resposta (4): tencent/hy4-preview (tempo esgotado), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (erro), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (erro), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (inválida).
p50 de consenso 5,4500 PTAX de 03/11/2026: 5,4935
- pplx-decider-v1.2 5,2788
- jev-1.13 5,2810
- jev-1.14 5,3019
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5,3700
- glm-5.2 5,3700
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5,3700
- qwen3.7-flash 5,3734
- minimax-m3 5,3800
- solar-pro4 5,3995
- claude-haiku-5.5 5,4000
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5,4000
- gemma-4-31b-it 5,4000
- gpt-5.6-luna 5,4000
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5,4000
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5,4000
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5,4100
- gemini-3.7-flash 5,4200
- gemini-3.8-flash 5,4200
- inkling 5,4200
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5,4200
- qwen3.8-27b 5,4200
- claude-sonnet-5 5,4500
- deepseek-v4-pro 5,4500
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5,4500
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5,4500
- solar-mini4 5,4500
- glm-5.3-flash 5,4800
- step-5-preview 5,4800
- gpt-6.1-sol 5,4920
- claude-opus-5.5 5,5000
- glm-5.3 5,5000
- kimi-k3 5,5000
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5,5000
- gpt-6.1-terra 5,5200
- claude-sonnet-5.5 5,5500
- gpt-6-astra 5,5500
- mimo-v2.6-flash 5,5500
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 5,5645
- gpt-6-luna-pro 5,5800
- claude-fable-5.1 5,6200
- gemini-4-argon 5,6200
- gpt-6-luna 5,6500
- qwen3.8-flash 5,6500
- hy3 5,7000
- gpt-oss-120b 5,7750
- deepseek-v4-flash 5,8000
- Passeio aleatório 5,4935
- Focus 5,3700
- A termo (aprox.) 6,0155
Sem resposta (4): tencent/hy4-preview (tempo esgotado), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (erro), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (erro), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (inválida).
p50 de consenso 5,9000 PTAX de 03/11/2026: 5,4935
- solar-pro4 5,2595
- gemini-2.5-flash-lite 5,4500
- gemma-4-26b-a4b-it 5,5000
- minimax-m3 5,5000
- nemotron-3.5-lightning 5,5000
- qwen3.7-flash 5,5428
- deepseek-v4.1-flash 5,5500
- minimax-m3.1-flash 5,5500
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b 5,5500
- nemotron-3.5-super-vl 5,5500
- qwen3.8-27b 5,5500
- gemini-3-flash-preview 5,6500
- kimi-k3.1-pro 5,6500
- inkling 5,6800
- claude-haiku-5.5 5,7000
- deepseek-v4-pro 5,7000
- gemini-3.7-flash 5,7000
- glm-5.2 5,7500
- claude-sonnet-5 5,8000
- gemini-3.8-flash 5,8000
- gemma-4-31b-it 5,8000
- kimi-k3 5,8000
- mimo-v2.6-pro 5,8500
- claude-opus-5.5 5,9500
- qwen3.8-flash 5,9500
- step-5-preview 5,9500
- gpt-5.6-luna 6,0000
- gpt-6.1-terra 6,0000
- solar-mini4 6,0000
- gpt-6.1-sol 6,0350
- gpt-6-luna-pro 6,0500
- claude-sonnet-5.5 6,1000
- gemini-4-argon 6,1000
- gpt-6-astra 6,1200
- pplx-decider-v1.2 6,1534
- claude-fable-5.1 6,2000
- glm-5.3 6,2500
- gpt-6-luna 6,2500
- gemini-3.1-flash-lite 6,3150
- jev-1.13 6,3649
- deepseek-v4-flash 6,4000
- glm-5.3-flash 6,4000
- gpt-oss-120b 6,5000
- mimo-v2.6-flash 6,5000
- hy3 6,6000
- jev-1.14 6,7340
- Passeio aleatório 5,4935
- A termo (aprox.) 8,6508
Sem resposta (4): tencent/hy4-preview (tempo esgotado), meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor (erro), dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview (erro), stepfun/step-3.7-flash (inválida).
Consenso ao longo do tempo
Este gráfico cresce a cada execução diária. Primeira execução: 03/11/2026. As próximas são todo dia às 14h (BRT).
Todos os números (50 modelos)
Em tela estreita, a tabela mostra um horizonte. Escolha aqui.
Cada célula: p50 e, abaixo, p10–p90.
| Modelo | 30d03/12/2026 | 6m03/05/2027 | 1a03/11/2027 | 5a03/11/2031 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| z-ai/glm-5.3-flash | 5,50005,2500–5,8200 | 5,45005,0200–6,0500 | 5,48004,9000–6,3500 | 6,40004,9000–8,8000 | ok |
| deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash | 5,40004,9777–5,8579 | 5,40004,4237–6,5918 | 5,45004,0586–7,3188 | 5,55003,1291–9,8440 | ok |
| tencent/hy4-preview | – | – | – | – | tempo esgotado |
| openai/gpt-6-luna | 5,47005,1500–5,8500 | 5,50004,9500–6,1500 | 5,65004,9000–6,6000 | 6,25004,5000–8,7000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 | 5,49005,2800–5,7300 | 5,48005,1000–5,9500 | 5,50005,0000–6,1000 | 5,95004,8000–7,6000 | ok |
| stepfun/step-5-preview | 5,43005,2500–5,6800 | 5,42004,9800–5,9800 | 5,48004,7800–6,3800 | 5,95004,5500–7,9000 | ok |
| minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash | 5,45005,0800–5,8200 | 5,40004,7500–6,1500 | 5,42004,6200–6,4000 | 5,55004,2000–7,3500 | ok |
| openai/gpt-5.6-luna | 5,38005,0800–5,7600 | 5,34004,8500–5,9000 | 5,40004,7000–6,2500 | 6,00004,1000–8,9000 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6.1-sol | 5,45205,1020–5,8440 | 5,43804,7480–6,2790 | 5,49204,5220–6,7840 | 6,03503,9820–9,4870 | ok |
| z-ai/glm-5.3 | 5,45005,1000–5,9000 | 5,40004,8500–6,1000 | 5,50004,8000–6,5000 | 6,25004,6000–8,3000 | ok |
| typesafe/jev-1.13typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 | 5,39685,2662–5,4742 | 5,31745,0690–5,4583 | 5,28105,1075–5,4545 | 6,36495,6072–8,4234 | ok |
| moonshotai/kimi-k3.1-pro | 5,40005,0200–5,8800 | 5,36004,6800–6,2200 | 5,41004,4200–6,6200 | 5,65004,0500–8,4500 | ok |
| tencent/hy3 | 5,50005,3000–5,7000 | 5,55005,1000–6,0000 | 5,70005,0000–6,4000 | 6,60005,6000–7,8000 | ok |
| nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b | 5,42005,3000–5,5500 | 5,38005,2500–5,5500 | 5,40005,2500–5,6000 | 5,55005,2000–5,9000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 | 5,42005,2000–5,6500 | 5,40005,0200–5,8200 | 5,40004,9000–5,9500 | 5,70004,9000–6,8000 | ok |
| nvidia/nemotron-3.5-super-vl | 5,40005,1000–5,7500 | 5,33004,8500–5,9000 | 5,37004,7000–6,2000 | 5,55004,3000–7,2000 | ok |
| xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash | 5,45005,2000–5,8500 | 5,50004,9500–6,2500 | 5,55004,8500–6,5000 | 6,50005,0000–8,5000 | ok |
| meta/muse-spark-1.3-contributor | – | – | – | – | erro |
| deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash | 5,55005,3000–5,8500 | 5,65005,0500–6,3500 | 5,80004,8500–6,9500 | 6,40004,6000–8,9000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5 | 5,49005,2000–5,8000 | 5,50004,9000–6,2000 | 5,55004,7000–6,5000 | 6,10004,5000–8,1000 | ok |
| moonshotai/kimi-k3 | 5,50005,2500–5,8500 | 5,45004,9500–6,0500 | 5,50004,7000–6,5500 | 5,80004,3000–7,6000 | ok |
| typesafe/jev-1.14typesafe/jev-1.14-20261014 | 5,40615,2683–5,4893 | 5,33615,1273–5,4701 | 5,30195,1102–5,4935 | 6,73405,3365–9,4488 | ok |
| google/gemini-3.8-flash | 5,46005,3200–5,6200 | 5,39005,1500–5,7000 | 5,42005,0500–5,8800 | 5,80004,8500–6,9500 | ok |
| upstage/solar-mini4 | 5,33005,2500–5,5200 | 5,40005,2800–5,6500 | 5,45005,3000–5,7500 | 6,00005,5000–7,0000 | ok |
| google/gemini-4-argon | 5,51005,2200–5,8200 | 5,56004,9500–6,2500 | 5,62004,8000–6,5500 | 6,10004,5000–8,3000 | ok |
| xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro | 5,42005,1600–5,7200 | 5,42004,9800–5,9500 | 5,50004,7200–6,4800 | 5,85004,1500–8,4000 | ok |
| nvidia/nemotron-3.5-lightning | 5,34285,1800–5,5040 | 5,33005,1400–5,5200 | 5,40005,2000–5,6000 | 5,50004,8000–6,2000 | ok |
| z-ai/glm-5.2 | 5,34005,1800–5,5200 | 5,33004,9800–5,6800 | 5,37004,8500–5,9500 | 5,75004,5000–7,2500 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6.1-terra | 5,47005,1600–5,8400 | 5,47004,8200–6,3000 | 5,52004,6400–6,6800 | 6,00004,3100–8,6500 | ok |
| dots-studio/dots-3-note-preview | – | – | – | – | erro |
| qwen/qwen3.8-flash | 5,46005,0700–5,8800 | 5,51004,9200–6,2000 | 5,65004,7500–6,7500 | 5,95004,6000–7,6500 | ok |
| qwen/qwen3.8-27b | 5,46005,2800–5,7200 | 5,40004,9800–5,9000 | 5,42004,7500–6,1500 | 5,55004,3000–7,1000 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6-luna-pro | 5,48005,0800–5,9100 | 5,52004,7200–6,4600 | 5,58004,4600–6,9900 | 6,05003,9000–9,3800 | ok |
| google/gemini-3-flash-preview | 5,48505,3400–5,6800 | 5,42005,1500–5,7500 | 5,45005,1000–5,9500 | 5,65004,8000–6,8000 | ok |
| deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro | 5,43005,1900–5,7200 | 5,40004,8200–6,1200 | 5,45004,6000–6,5500 | 5,70004,0000–8,5000 | ok |
| google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite | 5,51855,4125–5,7642 | 5,48505,2855–5,8920 | 5,56455,2520–6,1280 | 6,31505,6250–7,4580 | ok |
| stepfun/step-3.7-flash | – | – | – | – | inválida |
| minimax/minimax-m3 | 5,49005,3500–5,6800 | 5,42005,1800–5,7800 | 5,38005,0500–5,9000 | 5,50004,8000–6,8000 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 | 5,45005,3000–5,6200 | 5,40005,1000–5,7500 | 5,45005,0500–5,9000 | 5,80004,9000–7,0000 | ok |
| google/gemma-4-31b-it | 5,45005,3200–5,6200 | 5,33005,2500–5,5500 | 5,40005,2000–5,7500 | 5,80005,4000–6,5000 | ok |
| qwen/qwen3.7-flash | 5,34785,2664–5,4815 | 5,33785,2531–5,4765 | 5,37345,2601–5,5145 | 5,54285,3174–5,8326 | ok |
| openai/gpt-6-astra | 5,48005,1400–5,8700 | 5,47004,7900–6,3200 | 5,55004,5800–6,8600 | 6,12004,0900–9,5900 | ok |
| upstage/solar-pro4 | 5,40355,3380–5,5240 | 5,39955,3010–5,5220 | 5,39955,3010–5,5220 | 5,25955,1240–5,4120 | ok |
| google/gemini-3.7-flash | 5,45005,2850–5,6200 | 5,38005,0800–5,7200 | 5,42004,9500–5,9500 | 5,70004,6000–7,1000 | ok |
| openai/gpt-oss-120b | 5,52505,4500–5,6000 | 5,65005,5500–5,7500 | 5,77505,6500–5,9000 | 6,50006,2000–6,8000 | ok |
| google/gemma-4-26b-a4b-it | 5,34505,3125–5,4850 | 5,33005,2450–5,4950 | 5,37005,1820–5,6200 | 5,50004,9500–6,2500 | ok |
| thinkingmachines/inkling | 5,45005,2200–5,7200 | 5,38005,0800–5,8200 | 5,42005,0500–5,9200 | 5,68005,1500–6,4500 | ok |
| anthropic/claude-fable-5.1 | 5,49005,1500–5,8700 | 5,53004,8500–6,3300 | 5,62004,7500–6,7000 | 6,20004,5500–8,5000 | ok |
| perplexity/pplx-decider-v1.2perplexity/pplx-decider-v1.2-20261016 | 5,37115,2336–5,5477 | 5,30185,0020–5,5595 | 5,27884,8513–5,6867 | 6,15345,4278–7,6032 | ok |
| google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite | 5,50005,4577–5,5423 | 5,40005,3200–5,4800 | 5,40005,3100–5,4900 | 5,45005,3500–5,5500 | ok |
| Consenso (mediana dos p50, um voto por modelo) | 5,4500n = 46 | 5,4000n = 46 | 5,4500n = 46 | 5,9000n = 46 | |
| Referências | |||||
| Passeio aleatório (PTAX na data da previsão) | 5,4935 | 5,4935 | 5,4935 | 5,4935 | |
| Mediana Focus | 5,342812/2026 | 5,330005/2027 | 5,370011/2027 | – | |
| A termo (aproximação): PTAX × ((1 + Selic) / (1 + Fed funds))^(dias/365)Selic 13,75% · Fed funds 3,88% | 5,5346 | 5,7464 | 6,0155 | 8,6508 | |
Método
Esta página é um experimento. Todo dia às 14h (BRT), os 50 modelos mais populares do OpenRouter recebem o mesmo pacote de dados e dão o p10, o p50 e o p90 da PTAX em cada data-alvo. A página mostra somente números.
Os modelos de decisão (Jev, Perplexity Decider) dão uma probabilidade para cada faixa de variação; a página mostra p10, p50 e p90 calculados dessas probabilidades.
Datas-alvo: 30d 03/12/2026, 6m 03/05/2027, 1a 03/11/2027, 5a 03/11/2031.
Dados brutos desta execução: parsed.json · run.json · models.json · packet.json · prompt.json · raw.jsonl.gz